Abdul Aziz Ajini :HUMAN VOICE
Following years of political blackmail and Russian imprudence in different areas of the world during which the Russians applied a new pattern of proxy wars supported with propaganda of falsehood.
This Russian policy could impair the American interests in many regions of the world extending from Ukraine, Jeorgia, Kermia Peninsula and finally its military intervention in Syria. Exploiting the strategic hibernation of the United States following its failure in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The Russians tended to follow a policy of stretching and exploiting the strategic thresholds of the United States. This policy put the American Democratic Administration in front of difficult strategically complicated circumstances like the Syrian crisis with which the United States used to lead- from- behind policy either through its traditional allies in the Middle East or through implicit agreements with its rivals.
The United States gave way to all parties to be entangled in the Syrian crisis, which exhausted them all during Obama’s Administration. Now with the advent of Donald Trump to the White House where he found ready plans in the drawers of the White House.
These plans were made by the American policy-makers. One of these plans is the buffer zones in Syria. This procedures have been demanded for long time by regional allies of the United States and used to be rejected by the American Administration. This rejection was due to many reasons. First, the Americans were quite certain that the parties involved in the Syrian war were not exhausted yet. Second, the Americans were not ready to pay the bill for such a step.
Now as all parties have got to an impasse, there is no party is now able to hinder the American plan. The Russians are unable to restore a collapsing regime led by Bashar Assad. In addition, Iran has so far done all that it can do to save the regime but in vain. However, the Americans were not keen on knocking the regime down before finalizing the formula of a new leadership for Syria before the regime collapses.
As for Turkey, it tried its best to blackmail the Americans by allying with the Russians in Syria making use of the Russian inclination to defect US allies. However, Turkey left the door half opened for Americans because the Americans are the best to destabilize Turkey.
Yes, there is a big chance for success in the American initiative because all parties are drown in the Syrian mud. Turkey, above all, is ready to work with the Americans for such a simple reward i.e. the handover of Fatuhalla Gulen, which is not that high price for the American to pay, as the man is now politically dead.
The case with Russia is different. The Americans might make some concessions in other areas of the world and these concessions can convince the Russians to go along with the American plan and get some of the Syrian cake rather than lose it all in an empty circle like the situation now. It is true that the Russian have got a military momentum and have got no morals of war, yet they cannot impose stability and make peace that can preserve its interest in future Syria.
Likewise, the Iranians, they have no other choice tan making limited political gains in order not to be completely excluded from the game after they have been totally exhausted and they know that the price for their opposition might be a cause for destabilizing Iran internal fragile political and economic situation. This is on the one hand.
Moreover, the new American President has got a very stronghold of an influential internal relations with the biggest American Companies as he is Republican, and usually Republican Presidents are more able to launch wars than Democratic ones. This is because of the interrelations between Republican politicians and ground stones of American economy. He can mobilize influential Republican figures of industry and the media.
There might be some potential economic sanctions and pressure against the Russians that can be imposed by the United States in case they oppose the Americans in Syria.
Generally, if the United States intervene with all its power in the international arena of conflicts, it can build up international alliance that neither Russia nor Iran can stand up against.
The United States will mobilize the Europeans under the pressure of migration influxes and the Rocket Shield and other issues that concern them. The United States is no longer able to wait more for fear of losing its control of the situation in Syria and it will lose the confidence of its allies.
This will also make a good chance for the Russians to form an important axis with Turkey, which is already going on rapidly. Such an alliance between these two powers will certainly make the United States obliged to ally with the Iranian regime. This is useless as the regime in Tehran is no longer acceptable in the region and very close to the winds of change according to many indicators.
This is the game of stretching the strategic thresholds, which the Russians used to play during the Hibernation of the United States. The Americans will either strongly hit the table, or they will lose much on the international level, and Syria will be the first test that will pave the way to the American Administration to go further with other international disputes in other areas of the world like the Ukraine crisis. The weeks to come will be very dramatic for all parties involved in the Syrian war.